Climate Variability & Change

The Climate Variability and Change program seeks to deliver new knowledge and applications for decision-making in climate-sensitive industries and to understand and project climate variability and change and its impacts to improve adaptive responses and to inform policy and decision making. As such, research in the CVC program covers time-scales from weeks to decades, and includes multi-week prediction, seasonal prediction, and climate change projections. The program interacts strongly with the operational sections of the Bureau of Meteorology, particularly the National Climate Centre, and with a number of the CSIRO National Research Flagships. Observing Climate Variability and Change The Earth's climate is dynamic and naturally varies on seasonal, decadal, centennial, and longer timescales. Each "up and down" fluctuation can lead to conditions which are warmer or colder, wetter or drier, more stormy or quiescent. Analyses of decadal and longer climate records and studies based on climate models suggest that many changes in recent decades can be attributed to human actions; these decadal trends are referred to as climate change. The effects of climate variability and change ripple throughout the environment and society - indeed touching nearly all aspects of the human endeavor and the environment. These factors underlie NOAA's mission to observe, understand, and predict climate variability and change. Importance of Climate-Change Research to the Nation Climate influences every aspect of life on Earth, affecting human health and well-being, water and energy resources, agriculture, forests and natural landscapes, air quality, and sea levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 summarizes overwhelming evidence that global warming, due to human activities since 1750, is unequivocal. In addition to increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, observations find widespread melting of snow and ice; rising sea levels; widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, and wind patterns; and increasing occurrences of extreme weather, including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves, and intensity of tropical cyclones. Objective and interdisciplinary science is needed to understand more clearly the complexity of global climate issues. The science will play an essential role during the next decade in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local and regional implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks of decision making in a changing climate.